As the global community gears up for the 29th Conference of Parties (COP29) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, set to take place this November in Baku, Azerbaijan, new research by the African Institute for Development Policy (AFIDEP) is igniting a fresh debate on the link between population growth and climate action.
The study, published in the Vienna Yearbook of Population Research by the Vienna Institute of Demography and Austrian Academy of Sciences, highlights the potential for integrating family planning into climate strategies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Historically, the climate crisis has focused heavily on high-income nations, whose per capita emissions and consumption patterns contribute disproportionately to global GHG emissions.
However, the AFIDEP study, led by Prof. Nyovani Madise, Director of Development Policy and Head of AFIDEP Malawi, calls for a broader perspective—one that looks at population growth, particularly in rapidly expanding nations like Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, expected to see significant population increases by 2050.
“While the current framework, which emphasizes mitigation by high-income nations and adaptation by low-income, low-emitting countries, makes sense in the short term, it is insufficient to address the future impacts of rapid population growth,” notes the study.
While acknowledging the merit in these arguments, the study contends that they overlook the critical role of population dynamics in fast-growing, low-income African nations that are often viewed primarily as victims of climate change.
“These countries will not remain static in their economic development. Rapid urbanization and land-use changes to meet food and housing needs, coupled with increasing energy demands, will inevitably lead to greater environmental pressures,” the study notes.
The AFIDEP’s research emphasizes the need for development aid to focus on voluntary, ethical family planning, alongside education, poverty reduction, and environmental sustainability, to help curb population growth and lower greenhouse gas emissions.
Empowering younger populations, who are more likely to adopt sustainable consumption patterns, could shape a climate-conscious future.
Released ahead of COP29, the study is set to spark debate, as population control has been controversial.
AFIDEP argues that voluntary family planning could be a more effective way to reduce emissions than changing consumption in industrialized nations. However, this can only be done by empowering choices, not through coercion.
With the world off track to meet climate goals, the study warns that low-income nations will struggle to balance food security and sustainability without substantial financial and technological aid.
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