A new pre-election survey by the Institute of Public Opinion and Research (IPOR) shows former President Peter Mutharika leading the 2025 presidential race with 43% of voter support, significantly ahead of incumbent President Lazarus Chakwera, who polled at 26%.
The nationally representative survey, conducted between July 6 and 20 across 27 of Malawi’s 28 districts, involved over 2,600 adult respondents aiming to gauge voter sentiment ahead of the official campaign period and provides a snapshot of political leanings, economic perceptions, and trust in the electoral process.
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A staggering 80% of respondents believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, while 87% described the current economic situation as “bad.”
More than three-quarters (76%) said the economy has worsened over the past year, with 62% reporting that their own living conditions have declined.
While the Tonse Alliance government was credited for improvements in health (58%), water and sanitation (56%), and education (51%), it received poor ratings in economic management, job creation, and anti-corruption efforts.
Nearly half of Malawians (46%) believe President Chakwera’s administration has made little progress on its 2020 campaign promises.
Despite economic grievances, 76% of respondents expressed trust in the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC), and 64% believe the upcoming elections will be free and fair.
Use of technology in transmitting election results from polling stations to tally centers received support from two-thirds of respondents, especially in the central region.
Neutrality of the police and army, transparent vote counting, and balanced media coverage were identified as crucial to ensuring credible elections.
When asked what issues the next government should prioritize, 34% cited managing the economy, followed by food security at 22%. On what will drive their choice of president, 49% said a strong stance against corruption was most important, followed by policy promises (39%) and the presidential candidate themselves (31%). Other factors like region of origin, ethnicity, religion, and political handouts were considered less influential in shaping voter decisions.
Peter Mutharika, leader of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), enjoys broad support across regions and age groups. In the southern region, 66% of respondents said they would vote for Mutharika, making it his strongest base of support. In the central region, President Chakwera leads with 49%, while Mutharika trails. In the northern region, Mutharika garners 37% support, followed by Chakwera at 20% and Dalitso Kabambe of the UTM at 8%.
Mutharika also dominates among young voters aged 18–35, with 50% expressing support for him, compared to 25% for Chakwera and 6% for Kabambe. Across the national sample, Kabambe and Atupele Muluzi (UDF) trail behind with 5% and 2% support respectively, while former President Joyce Banda (PP) polls at just 1%. Notably, 12% of respondents remain undecided, and 6% declined to disclose their preferred candidate.
IPOR notes that these findings reflect public opinion before the official campaign period and it plans to conduct another round of polling closer to the elections to assess how voter sentiment may shift once campaign messages, political alliances, and events take full effect.
